General Practice wide adaptations to support patients affected by DVA during the COVID-19 pandemic: a rapid qualitative study (preprint)

Background Reporting of domestic violence and abuse (DVA) increased globally during the pandemic. General Practice has a central role in identifying and supporting those affected by DVA. Pandemic associated changes in UK primary care included remote initial contacts with primary care and predominantly remote consulting. This paper explores general practice’s adaptation to DVA care during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods Remote semi-structured interviews were conducted by telephone with staff from six practices across six localities in England and Wales where the Identification and Referral to Improve Safety (IRIS) primary care DVA programme is commissioned. We conducted interviews between April 2021 and February 2022 with three practice managers, three reception and administrative staff, eight general practice clinicians and seven specialist DVA staff. Patient and public involvement and engagement (PPI&E) advisers with lived experience of DVA guided the project. Together we developed recommendations for primary care teams based on our findings. Results We present our findings within four themes, representing primary care adaptatations in delivering DVA care. 1. Making general practice accessible for DVA care Staff adapted telephone triaging processes for appointments and promoted availability DVA support online. 2. General practice team-working to identify DVA Practices developed new approaches of collaboration, including whole team adaptations to information processing and communication 3. Adapting to remote consultations about DVA Teams were required to adapt to challenges including concerns about safety, privacy, and developing trust remotely. 4. Experiences of onward referrals for specialist DVA support Support from specialist services was effective and largely unchanged during the pandemic Conclusions Disruption caused by pandemic restrictions revealed how team dynamics and interactions before, during and after clinical consultations contribute to identifying and supporting patients experiencing DVA. Remote assessment complicates access to and delivery of DVA care. This has implications for all primary and secondary care settings, within the NHS and internationally, which are vital to consider in both practice and policy.

Rebound in asthma exacerbations following relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions: a longitudinal population-based study (COVIDENCE UK) (preprint)

BackgroundThe imposition of restrictions on social mixing early in the COVID-19 pandemic was followed by a reduction in asthma exacerbations in multiple settings internationally. Temporal trends in social mixing, incident acute respiratory infections (ARI) and asthma exacerbations following relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions have not yet been described. MethodsWe conducted a population-based longitudinal study in 2,312 UK adults with asthma between November 2020 and April 2022. Details of face covering use, social mixing, incident ARI and moderate/severe asthma exacerbations were collected via monthly on-line questionnaires. Temporal changes in these parameters were visualised using Poisson generalised additive models. Multilevel logistic regression was used to test for associations between incident ARI and risk of asthma exacerbations, adjusting for potential confounders. ResultsRelaxation of COVID-19 restrictions from April 2021 coincided with reduced face covering use (p<0.001), increased frequency of indoor visits to public places and other households (p<0.001) and rising incidence of COVID-19 (p<0.001), non-COVID-19 ARI (p<0.001) and moderate/severe asthma exacerbations (p=0.007). Incident non-COVID-19 ARI associated independently with increased risk of asthma exacerbation (adjusted odds ratio 5.75, 95% CI 4.75 to 6.97) as did incident COVID-19, both prior to emergence of the omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 (5.89, 3.45 to 10.04) and subsequently (5.69, 3.89 to 8.31). ConclusionsRelaxation of COVID-19 restrictions coincided with decreased face covering use, increased social mixing and a rebound in ARI and asthma exacerbations. Associations between incident ARI and risk of moderate/severe asthma exacerbation were similar for non-COVID-19 ARI and COVID-19, both before and after emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 omicron variant. FundingBarts Charity, UKRI

Impact of the first national COVID-19 lockdown on referral of women experiencing domestic violence and abuse in England and Wales (preprint)

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic, with the related lockdown periods to curb transmission, has made it harder for survivors of domestic violence and abuse (DVA) to disclose abuse and access support services. Our study describes the impact of the first COVID-19 wave and the associated national lockdown in England and Wales on the referrals from general practice to the IRIS ( I dentification and R eferral to I mprove S afety) DVA programme. We compare this to the change in referrals in the same months in the previous year, during the school holidays in the three years preceding the pandemic and the period just after the first COVID-19 wave. School holiday periods were chosen as a comparator, since families, including the perpetrator, are together, affecting access to services. Methods We used anonymised data on daily referrals received by the IRIS DVA service in 33 areas from general practices over the period April 2017-September 2020. Interrupted-time series and non-linear regression were used to quantify the impact of the first national lockdown in March-June 2020 comparing analogous months the year before, and the impact of school holidays (01/04/2017-30/09/2020) on number of referrals, reporting Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR), 95% confidence intervals and p-values. Results The first national lockdown in 2020 lead to reduced number of referrals to DVA services (27%,95%CI=(21%,34%)) compared to the period before and after, and 19% fewer referrals compared to the same period in the year before. A reduction in the number of referrals was also evident during the school holidays with the highest reduction in referrals during the winter 2019 pre-pandemic school holiday (44%,95%CI=(32%,54%)) followed by the effect from the summer of 2020 school holidays (20%,95%CI=(10%,30%)). There was also a smaller reduction (13%-15%) in referrals during the longer summer holidays 2017–2019; and some reduction (5%-16%) during the shorter spring holidays 2017–2019. Conclusions We show that the COVID-19 lockdown in 2020 led to decline in referrals to DVA services. Our findings suggest an association between decline in referrals to DVA services for woman experiencing DVA and prolonged periods of systemic closure proxied here by both the first COVID-19 national lockdown or school holidays. This highlights the need for future planning to provide adequate access and support for people experiencing DVA during future national lockdowns and during the school holidays.

Vitamin D supplementation to prevent acute respiratory infections: systematic review and meta-analysis of aggregate data from randomised controlled trials (preprint)

Objectives: To assess the overall effect of vitamin D supplementation on risk of acute respiratory infection (ARI), and to identify factors modifying this effect. Design: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of data from randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of vitamin D for ARI prevention using a random effects model. Pre-specified sub-group analyses were done to determine whether effects of vitamin D on risk of ARI varied according to baseline 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) concentration or dosing regimen. Data Sources: MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), Web of Science, ClinicalTrials.gov and the International Standard RCT Number (ISRCTN) registry from inception to May 2020. Eligibility Criteria for Selecting Studies: Double-blind RCTs of supplementation with vitamin D or calcidiol, of any duration, were eligible if they were approved by a Research Ethics Committee and if ARI incidence was collected prospectively and pre-specified as an efficacy outcome. Results: We identified 40 eligible RCTs (total 30,956 participants, aged 0 to 95 years). Data were obtained for 29,841 (96.5%) of 30,909 participants in 39 studies. For the primary comparison of vitamin D supplementation vs. placebo, the intervention reduced risk of ARI overall (Odds Ratio [OR] 0.89, 95% CI 0.81 to 0.98; P for heterogeneity 0.009). No statistically significant effect of vitamin D was seen for any of the sub-groups defined by baseline 25(OH)D concentration. However, protective effects were seen for trials in which vitamin D was given using a daily dosing regimen (OR 0.75, 95% CI 0.61 to 0.93); at daily dose equivalents of 400-1000 IU (OR 0.70, 95% CI 0.55 to 0.89); and for a duration of [≤]12 months (OR 0.82, 95% CI 0.72 to 0.94). Vitamin D did not influence the proportion of participants experiencing at least one serious adverse event (OR 0.94, 95% CI 0.81 to 1.08). Risk of bias within individual studies was assessed as being low for all but two trials. A funnel plot showed asymmetry, suggesting that small trials showing non-protective effects of vitamin D may have been omitted from the meta-analysis. Conclusions: Vitamin D supplementation was safe and reduced risk of ARI, despite evidence of significant heterogeneity across trials. The overall effect size may have been over-estimated due to publication bias. Protection was associated with administration of daily doses of 400-1000 IU vitamin D for up to 12 months. The relevance of these findings to COVID-19 is not known and requires investigation.

RT-PCR testing to detect a COVID-19 outbreak in Austria: rapid, accurate and early diagnosis in primary care (The REAP study) (preprint)

Background Delay in COVID-19 detection has led to a major pandemic. We report rapid early detection of SARS-CoV-2 by reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), comparing it to the serostatus of convalescent infection, at an Austrian National Sentinel Surveillance Practice in an isolated ski-resort serving a population of 22,829 people. Methods Retrospective dataset of all 73 patients presenting with mild to moderate flu-like symptoms to a sentinel practice in the ski-resort of Schladming-Dachstein, Austria, between 24 February and 03 April, 2020. We split the outbreak in two halves, by dividing the period from the first to the last case by two, to characterise the following three cohorts of patients with confirmed infection: people with reactive RT-PCR presenting during the first half (early acute infection) vs. those presenting in the second half (late acute), and people with non-reactive RT-PCR (late convalescent). For each cohort we report the number of cases detected, the accuracy of RT-PCR and the duration of symptoms. We also report multivariate regression of 15 clinical symptoms as covariates, comparing all people with convalescent infection to those with acute infection. Findings All 73 patients had SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR testing. 22 patients were diagnosed with COVID-19, comprising: 8 patients presenting early acute, and 7 presenting late acute and 7 late convalescent respectively; 44 patients tested SARS-COV-2 negative, and 7 were excluded. RT-PCR sensitivity was high (100%) among acute presenters, but dropped to 50% in the second half of the outbreak; specificity was 100%. The mean duration of symptoms was 2 days (range 1-4) among early acute presenters, and 4.4 days (1-7) among late acute and 8 days (2-12) among late convalescent presenters respectively. Convalescent infection was only associated with loss of taste (ORs=6.02;p=0.047). Acute infection was associated with loss of taste (OR=571.72;p=0.029), nausea and vomiting (OR=370.11;p=0.018), breathlessness (OR=134.46;p=0.049), and myalgia (OR=121.82;p=0.032); but not loss of smell, fever or cough. Interpretation RT-PCR rapidly and reliably detects early COVID-19 among people presenting with viral illness and multiple symptoms in primary care, particularly during the early phase of an outbreak. RT-PCR testing in primary care should be prioritised for effective COVID-19 prevention and control.

Ethnicity and Outcomes from COVID-19: The ISARIC CCP-UK Prospective Observational Cohort Study of Hospitalised Patients (preprint)

Background: Reports of ethnic inequalities in COVID-19 outcomes are conflicting and the reasons for any differences in outcomes are unclear. We investigated ethnic inequalities in critical care admission patterns, the need for invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV), and in-hospital mortality, among hospitalised patients with COVID-19. Methods: We undertook a prospective cohort study in which dedicated research staff recruited hospitalised patients with suspected/confirmed COVID-19 from 260 hospitals across England, Scotland and Wales, collecting data directly and from records between 6th February and 8th May 2020 with follow-up until 22nd May 2020. Analysis used hierarchical regression models accounting for confounding, competing risks, and clustering of patients in hospitals. Potential mediators for death were explored with a three-way decomposition mediation analysis. Findings: Of 34,986 patients enrolled, 30,693 (88%) had ethnicity recorded: South Asian (1,388, 5%), East Asian (266, 1%), Black (1,094, 4%), Other Ethnic Minority (2,398, 8%) (collectively Ethnic Minorities), and White groups (25,547, 83%). Ethnic Minorities were younger and more likely to have diabetes (type 1/type 2) but had fewer other comorbidities such as chronic heart disease or dementia than the White group. No difference was seen between ethnic groups in the time from symptom onset to hospital admission, nor in illness severity at admission. Critical care admission was more common in South Asian (odds ratio 1.28, 95% confidence interval 1.09 to 1.52), Black (1.36, 1.14 to 1.62), and Other Ethnic Minority (1.29, 1.13 to 1.47) groups compared to the White group, after adjusting for age, sex and location. This was broadly unchanged after adjustment for deprivation and comorbidities. Patterns were similar for IMV. Higher adjusted mortality was seen in the South Asian (hazard ratio 1.19, 1.05 to 1.36), but not East Asian (1.00, 0.74 to 1.35), Black (1.05, 0.91 to 1.26) or Other Ethnic Minority (0.99, 0.89 to 1.10) groups, compared to the White group. 18% (95% CI, 9% to 56%) of the excess mortality in South Asians was mediated by pre-existing diabetes. Interpretation: Ethnic Minorities in hospital with COVID-19 were more likely to be admitted to critical care and receive IMV than Whites, despite similar disease severity on admission, similar duration of symptoms, and being younger with fewer comorbidities. South Asians are at greater risk of dying, due at least in part to a higher prevalence of pre-existing diabetes. Trial Registration: The study was registered at https://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN66726260. Funding Statement: This work is supported by grants from: the National Institute for Health Research [award CO-CIN-01], the Medical Research Council [grant MC_PC_19059] and by the National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit (NIHR HPRU) in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections at University of Liverpool in partnership with Public Health England (PHE), in collaboration with Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine and the University of Oxford [NIHR award 200907], Wellcome Trust and Department for International Development [215091/Z/18/Z], and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation [OPP1209135], and Liverpool Experimental Cancer Medicine Centre for providing infrastructure support for this research (Grant Reference: C18616/A25153). JSN-V-T is seconded to the Department of Health and Social Care, England (DHSC).Declaration of Interests: All authors have completed the ICMJE uniform disclosure form at www.icmje.org/coi_disclosure.pdf and declare: AB Docherty reports grants from Department of Health and Social Care, during the conduct of the study; grants from Wellcome Trust, outside the submitted work; CA Green reports grants from DHSC National Institute of Health Research UK, during the conduct of the study; PW Horby reports grants from Wellcome Trust / Department for International Development / Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, grants from NIHR , during the conduct of the study; JS Nguyen-Van-Tam reports grants from Department of Health and Social Care, England, during the conduct of the study; and is seconded to the Department of Health and Social Care, England (DHSC); PJM Openshaw reports personal fees from consultancies and from European Respiratory Society; grants from MRC, MRC Global Challenge Research Fund, EU, NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, MRC/GSK, Wellcome Trust, NIHR (HPRU in Respiratory Infection), and NIHR Senior Investigator outside the submitted work. His role as President of the British Society for Immunology was unpaid but travel and accommodation at some meetings was provided by the Society. JK Baillie reports grants from Medical Research Council UK; MG Semple reports grants from DHSC National Institute of Health Research UK, grants from Medical Research Council UK, grants from Health Protection Research Unit in Emerging & Zoonotic Infections, University of Liverpool, during the conduct of the study; other from Integrum Scientific LLC, Greensboro, NC, USA, outside the submitted work. EM Harrison, H Ardwick, J Dunning, R Pius, L Norman, KA Holden, JM Read, G Carson, L Merson, J Lee, D Plotkin, L Sigfrid, S Halpin, C Jackson, and C Gamble, all declare: no support from any organisation for the submitted work; no financial relationships with any organisations that might have an interest in the submitted work in the previous three years; and no other relationships or activities that could appear to have influenced the submitted work.Ethics Approval Statement: Ethical approval was given by the South Central – Oxford C Research Ethics Committee in England (Ref: 13/SC/0149), and by the Scotland A Research Ethics Committee (Ref: 20/SS/0028).